Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 0.817373 0.954086 1.106303 1.288316 1.500047 1.738602 2.027847
2024-12-29 0.628678 0.819957 1.057126 1.372707 1.781700 2.294079 2.985336
2025-01-05 0.485512 0.684829 0.951443 1.333960 1.868862 2.590827 3.640703
2025-01-12 0.388945 0.584781 0.863428 1.288490 1.920786 2.827445 4.228690
2025-01-19 0.320590 0.509415 0.792839 1.248752 1.964171 3.045064 4.805798
2025-01-26 0.282794 0.472091 0.770097 1.272696 2.099833 3.409029 5.643856
2025-02-02 0.264434 0.461718 0.786057 1.357117 2.338467 3.958756 6.844682
2025-02-09 0.241186 0.439059 0.777720 1.398286 2.508354 4.414308 7.945342
2025-02-16 0.217914 0.412510 0.758354 1.416236 2.638087 4.814194 8.996961
2025-02-23 0.195609 0.384203 0.731513 1.415907 2.732793 5.160448 9.991432
2025-03-02 0.174898 0.355791 0.700364 1.402519 2.799767 5.461275 10.934892
2025-03-09 0.158640 0.333694 0.678054 1.402552 2.891153 5.816382 12.023821
2025-03-16 0.138300 0.300984 0.631665 1.350362 2.875890 5.970086 12.748447
2025-03-23 0.134169 0.301740 0.653276 1.441609 3.168231 6.778654 14.934015
2025-03-30 0.118749 0.275771 0.615497 1.401017 3.174954 6.996281 15.890070
2025-04-06 0.104793 0.251028 0.576985 1.353279 3.158965 7.161927 16.751208
2025-04-13 0.093065 0.229725 0.543242 1.311556 3.150450 7.341591 17.665390
2025-04-20 0.087224 0.221596 0.538501 1.336696 3.300125 7.895521 19.521373
2025-04-27 0.085816 0.224132 0.559112 1.425333 3.612820 8.864727 22.496175
2025-05-04 0.081716 0.219287 0.561234 1.468557 3.819531 9.606406 25.007492
2025-05-11 0.076630 0.211158 0.554138 1.487403 3.967082 10.221045 27.277218
2025-05-18 0.071068 0.200959 0.540416 1.487058 4.064605 10.721328 29.313677
2025-05-25 0.065404 0.189685 0.522449 1.473002 4.123946 11.130815 31.162572